Renowned climate scientists are in heated disagreement over the exact record-breaking status of the current El Niño, even as projections suggest it will soon become the most powerful in recorded history. While some experts claim the phenomenon is already “off the charts” by certain measures, others caution that common indices have not yet surpassed previous “super El Niños,” raising critical questions about how best to quantify impending global devastation.
James Hansen of Columbia University asserted the El Niño had blossomed, noting his preferred metric—heat anomaly in the upper 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean—already surpassed the 1997-98 super El Niño. Hansen also stated that a more common measure, the Niño3.4 index, significantly exceeded prior values. However, Adam Scaife at the Met Office contested this, noting the Niño3.4 index had not yet surpassed past super El Niños, with its current anomaly at 2 degrees above the norm, compared to 2.5 degrees during the 1997/1998 peak.
This discrepancy may stem from how the Niño3.4 index is typically expressed as a three or five-month running mean, according to Daniel Swain of the California Institute for Water Resources. Swain supported Hansen's view, indicating that Niño3.4 values are now the highest on record for the time of year. Yet, even the daily Niño3.4 value, which hit 2.75°C earlier this month, has not surpassed the 3.1°C peak observed in November 2015. Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth added that, by the standard El Niño metric, it remains the third strongest event on record, though upper 300m heat is often a leading indicator.
Despite the ongoing statistical parsing, a consensus emerged on the El Niño's future trajectory. Kevin Trenberth at the National Center of Atmospheric Research agreed it is the biggest on record. Scaife, who earlier noted the current event's comparative weakness on one metric, issued a statement forecasting an El Niño signal so intense it had never been seen before, warning that 2026 will far exceed recent experience. Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University projected the developing super El Niño would likely be the biggest ever recorded, potentially surpassing the 1877-1878 El Niño, which led to approximately 50 million deaths.
As scientists meticulously crunch the numbers, humanity can rest assured the debate over precise measurement units will continue right up until the point the world is experiencing widespread famine, which will finally settle the matter.
